Theory Into Practice: The Dollar Dilemma.

I have spoken a lot of confusion lately, and nowhere more obvious than the markets. They waited for the FOMC meeting today for some direction on the USD but it was not very helpful. There was a slight shift towards more hawkishness in the statement from the meeting that was the final one for Chairwoman […]

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Naughty Or Nice?

Well, I suppose that depends on what you believe in …or rather who, and ultimately what you invest in. It looks as if we will close out the year in the same changeable climate that we have got used to in the second half of 2017. I do hope Father Christmas (or Santa Claus as […]

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The Santa Claus Blip

We all know about the Santa Claus rally…a December phenomenon, supporting equities and classic risk-on behaviour. This year has been very challenging and just maybe even Santa Claus has been affected. At one point this week…it maybe lasted 2 days the rally swung into being, equities flew again and even Japanese and Chinese markets corrected […]

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Who Is Giving Thanks This Year?

Looking at the winners so far this year we have to look again at the equity markets. At least in the US and Europe markets, the participators of the rally are certainly giving thanks. Resilience is the most frequently used word in this sector and this is my favourite quote of the year from Robin […]

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Theory Into Practice: A Physics Lesson

Dominoes…anyone remember them? Building long rows of little blocks and then watching one tip into another and bringing the whole line down. The subject of stock market overvaluations has been discussed many times in this blog, though the behaviour in the S&P500…to name but one, showed no signs in the first half of the year […]

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Theory Into Practice: Twists And Turns

The first half of the week was dominated by this The Nikkei is the barometer of sentiment and it fell quickly over a 4 day period. As the chart shows the correction has also been strong, which tells us that sentiment globally is vulnerable to high amounts of speculation and the focus is on politics. That does not […]

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Spinning Politics & Policies

To keep saying that market is tricky and an extremely difficult environment to trade is little compensation for those new to it. A baptism by fire….or is it? I will start this week not with global macro but with a perspective given to me by a member in a mentoring session. His attitude absolutely encapsulated […]

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Theory Into Practice: The Games Continue

Our task is to be aware of news both economic and political and assess how it affects our biases and be flexible in changing them accordingly. The RBNZ is a great example as we know that central bank rhetoric forecasting and intentions are extremely important to understanding the course of their monetary policy and therefore what is […]

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Theory Into Practice: A Big Week

There is plenty to update as we go through this major news week. With three central banks deciding rates as well as politics and still NFP ahead there are plenty of potential upsets and always the chance of volatility which is preferable to avoid. I have focused on the AUDNZD this week. It has been […]

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